For the eighth consecutive year, Swiss watch industry consultancy LuxeConsult and financial institution Morgan Stanley have released their annual report, detailing the state of the Swiss watch market. While 2023 saw record-breaking performance, the report warns of a potential slowdown in 2024 due to macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, alongside demand uncertainty in major markets such as the United States, Europe, and China.
The latest data confirms a shift in the industry’s trajectory, with some brands thriving while others face tough times. According to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FHS), Swiss watch exports are expected to decline by 3% in 2024. This decline follows two years of exceptional growth in 2022 and 2023 and could signal the beginning of a broader market downturn. However, the FHS report provides a general overview of the industry, while more detailed insights are found in the annual reports from Oliver Müller/LuxeConsult and Morgan Stanley, which offer a closer look at specific brands and market segments.
The 2024 report outlines a general contraction in the watch market following the post-pandemic boom. The most striking feature of the 2024 market, however, is its increasing polarization. Large companies remain largely unaffected or even continue to grow, while many second-tier brands report significant declines in sales. As the report notes, “the largest brands usually gain further market share, a common trend across most luxury sectors.”
A clear divide is emerging between the high-end and mid-to-lower-range markets. Watches priced above CHF 50,000 now account for 33.5% of total Swiss watch exports, with this segment expected to grow by a remarkable 84% by 2024. Meanwhile, the luxury market is showing signs of a slowdown, impacting many brands in the sector. The turnover of the top 50 brands has shrunk from CHF 36.127 billion in 2023 to an estimated CHF 35.258 billion in 2024. In parallel, sales volumes have dropped from nearly 16 million units to just over 13 million. This suggests that while fewer watches are being sold, the average price per watch has significantly increased.
Morgan Stanley’s report highlights a key trend that has been building for some time: market polarization. While leading private brands—Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille—continue to grow in this challenging environment, the three major listed groups (LVMH, Richemont, and Swatch) have seen their market shares decline. Swatch Group, in particular, reports a 14.6% drop in sales for 2025.
Rolex remains the dominant player in the industry, with an estimated turnover exceeding CHF 10.5 billion, a CHF 500 million increase from 2023. Together, the “Big Four” now account for 47% of the total Swiss watch market, with the report noting a staggering increase of 1,020 basis points since 2019. Despite a slower growth rate in 2024 compared to the previous year, Rolex’s position as the industry leader remains unchallenged. The report further emphasizes that no other luxury watch brand holds such a commanding market share within its segment.
However, the outlook for other brands is less positive. Tudor, a sister brand to Rolex, has struggled, with estimates suggesting a difficult year. Cartier, part of Richemont, has solidified its position as the second-largest watch brand. Other luxury jewelers such as Bulgari and Van Cleef & Arpels also performed well, expanding their market share. Omega, also owned by the Swatch Group, followed a similar trend but was not as severely impacted as other Swatch Group brands.
The report also highlights the continued success of independent watchmakers, a trend that has emerged in recent years. Brands like FP Journe, H. Moser & Cie, and MB&F—who have been expanding their presence in the market—are expected to keep growing in 2024 after impressive gains in previous years. These independent brands have carved out a niche in the luxury watch market, competing with the traditional big players.
Despite the growth of certain independent brands, the Swiss watch market remains highly concentrated, with four major groups—Swatch, Rolex Group (with Rolex accounting for 32% of the market), Richemont, and Patek Philippe—now controlling over three-quarters of Swiss watch sales. LVMH, which holds a 6% market share, ranks fifth.
The 2025 Swiss watch industry report paints a picture of a market undergoing significant change. While major players like Rolex continue to dominate and expand, many smaller brands face challenges in an increasingly polarized market. The slowdown in the luxury market and the overall decline in Swiss watch exports signal a shift, with high-end models continuing to drive growth while mid-range and lower-priced watches experience stagnation. As the industry continues to consolidate, the next few years will likely see further concentration of power among the largest players, with independent brands finding new opportunities for growth.
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