We regularly follow the observations on the market trends of popular luxury watches by the advanced watch market research institution WatchCharts. We have discovered that since the second quarter of 2022, the secondary market prices of popular watches have shifted from prosperity to decline, and the downward trend has persisted for over two and a half years with no end in sight. This has led to a phenomenon: some watches that were not overly inflated in the market have, after a prolonged period of price drops, reached a level where their secondary market prices are no longer “overpriced,” such as the Deepsea 136660 black dial, Explorer semi-gold 124273, Sea-Dweller 126600 and 126603, etc. Although these big data on market trends mainly come from Europe, America and other regions, they still hold certain reference value. So, what is the actual situation in Asia?
Recently, a Chinese horological writer published an article online, suggesting that after more than two years of the price decline trend, even major brands like Rolex have lost their former glory in the local market. He found that an increasing number of Rolex watches have dropped below their retail prices. He first gave two examples: the rose gold Yacht-Master 126655, with a local retail price of RMB 251,100, which reached approximately RMB 300,000 at the peak of the market but has now dropped to around RMB 220,000. Additionally, some Datejust models that were overpriced a year ago have now started to offer discounts in the Chinese secondary market. Even the Daytona is not immune to the market slump. For instance, the gold model 126508, with a retail price of RMB 344,900, has recently dropped to around RMB 325,000, falling below the retail price.
The Panda Daytona 126500LN’s current market price in China has dropped to over RMB 210,000, a significant decline from its peak.
Some popular watches no longer have overpriced market trends, and the secondary market prices of some watches that once had extremely high premium rates have also corrected and returned to normal. The Chinese expert continued to give examples. The Day-Date 40 228238, known locally as the “Black Sugar Cube,” once soared to over RMB 480,000 at its peak two or three years ago but has now dropped to over RMB 410,000. The Panda Daytona 126500LN, which previously peaked at around RMB 300,000, has experienced a price drop over the past two years and is now down to over RMB 210,000. The GMT-Master II with the five-link bracelet and the Pepsi bezel, which once commanded a price of over RMB 190,000, has now dropped to over RMB 150,000. The Green Submariner is in a similar situation. At its peak, it had a market price of around RMB 180,000 and is now nearly halved to around RMB 105,000. These examples demonstrate that once the seemingly unshakable market trends of Rolex’s popular models have faced the downturn of the market, their prices have had to be adjusted downward to a more acceptable level.
The Chinese expert believes that the prices of Rolex’s popular models are expected to drop to a recent low by the end of December.
The Chinese expert believes that Rolex watches still have room for further price drops in the short term, especially starting from mid-to-late December 2024. He believes they might fall to a new low within the next one to two months (that is, the prices of these popular models might slightly rebound after the start of 2025). Why does he think so? Of course, it’s not just his personal guess. He has reached this conclusion after observing two key points in the market dynamics.
At the end of the year, watch stores start to face the pressure of clearing inventory, and at this time, the threshold for selling watches with additional purchases will slightly decrease.
Rolex AD stores in China have begun to lower the threshold for purchasing popular models with additional watches to meet sales targets
December of each year is typically the peak period for the luxury watch market. As Rolex’s existing inventory is sold this month and foreign markets are approaching the Christmas and New Year holidays at the end of the month, the arrival of new stocks takes longer than usual. AD stores, with the last batch of goods for the year in hand, are not worried about selling out and therefore set a strict requirement for the amount of additional purchases. Take the Daytona 126500LN as an example. A few years ago, to purchase this model in the Chinese market, one typically needed to make additional purchases totaling approximately RMB 250,000. As of the end of 2024, the price has adjusted to RMB 220,000.
The recent introduction of remaining stocks from abroad during the Black Friday shopping season into the Chinese market, combined with the continued downward trend of the local market, has resulted in more discounted prices for purchasing watches.
Remaining stocks from some “Black Friday” sales abroad have entered the Chinese market
The prices of goods during the Black Friday sales abroad are generally lower than the common market prices in China. Coupled with the continuous decline in the prices of local watches at the same time, there is more discounted space for the stocks purchased by the secondary market from Rolex AD stores. Anyway, as long as the selling price is higher than the purchase cost, making less profit is better than having the goods unsold and stocked. However, the stocks from the Black Friday sales will eventually be sold out. The expert estimates that this might happen around mid-January 2025. At that time, the secondary market will gradually receive new stocks, and with less pressure to clear inventory at the end of the year and the approaching Lunar New Year holiday season, the prices will become firmer. Therefore, he boldly predicts that the market trends of Rolex’s popular models will slightly improve at that time. Therefore, it might currently be the best time to buy a watch this year.
The expert believes that if one wants to purchase a Rolex watch as a reward before the Lunar New Year in 2025, the price from now until the end of the year should be the most favorable. However, this is only his calculation. The actual development is unknown, and each person’s perception of a “worthwhile” purchase price varies. The decision, of course, lies with the buyer. Nevertheless, we can all consider the observations of the Chinese expert as a reference before making a purchase.
Related Topic:
5 Of Rolex’s Most Influential Watches
What Are The Functions Of Rolex Watches
Which Rolex Is Suitable For Business People
